Improving rural wages in India

The purpose of this paper is to identify public policy and program interventions that can increase real rural wage rates and hence reduce rural poverty. Rural wages can only increase if the demand for rural labor grows faster than its supply. The report states that whether public policies increase real agricultural wages depends on whether they promote rural non farm employment to absorb the growing labor force. For example, although educational infrastructure, public irrigation, and regulation of markets raise agricultural output, they depress real agricultural wages because they do not increase nonfarm employment. In contrast, rural electrification, roads and banks can increase real agricultural wages, because they increase nonfarm employment. Rural financial institutions and electrification reallocate labor from agriculture to rural nonfarm activities, however, while roads promote both farm and nonfarm employment.Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Banks&Banking Reform,Municipal Financial Management,Health Monitoring&Evaluation

The impact of farm credit in Pakistan

Both formal, and informal loans matter in agriculture. But formal lenders provide much more in production lending, than do informal lenders, often at a higher cost than what they can recover. The Agricultural Development Bank of Pakistan (ADBP), for example, providing about 90 percent of formal loans in rural areas, incurs high costs on loan defaults. Like other governments, the Government of Pakistan subsidized the formal scheme on the grounds that lending to agriculture is a high-risk activity, because of covariate risk. Because farm credit schemes are subsidized, policymakers must know if these schemes are worth supporting. Using recent data from a large household survey from rural Pakistan, the authors estimate the cost-effectiveness of the ADBP loans. To estimate credit's impact, they use a two-stage method, which takes into account the endogeneity of borrowing. Clearly, formal lenders are biased toward larger farmers with collateral. Large landowners, who tend to represent only four percent of rural households, get 42 percent of formal loans. Landless, and subsistence farmers, who represent more than 69 percent of rural households, receive only 23 percent of formal loans. ADBP loans improve household welfare but, although large farmers receive most of ADBP finance, the impact of credit is greater for small farmers than for large farmers. Large landowners use formal loans unproductively. Because the ADBP scheme is subsidized, it is not cost-effective for delivering rural credit. It would be more cost-effective is small farmers were better targeted instead.Financial Intermediation,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Banks&Banking Reform,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Strategic Debt Management,Economic Theory&Research,Banks&Banking Reform,Environmental Economics&Policies,Financial Intermediation

The effect of formal credit on output and employment in rural India

This paper estimates the output, investment, employment and wage effect of institutional credit using district-level panel data from India. Using a two-stage model to distinguish demand for formal credit from supply, the authors conclude that increased formal credit has a positive effect on crop production, on the use of fertilizer, and on private investment in machines and livestock. However, the effect of expanded credit on crop output is small. Crop output improves more because of increased use of fertilizer than because of capital investments, which merely substitute for labor.Credit decreases farm employment, yet increases the real agricultural wage because of its overwhelmingly positive effect on rural nonfarm employment. In short, improved financial intermediation in rural India greatly improves rural nonfarm employment and output, has a modest effect on crop output, and tends to substitute capital investment for farm labor.Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Agricultural Research,Financial Intermediation,Banks&Banking Reform

Microfinance and poverty - evidence using panel data from Bangladesh

Micro-finance supports mainly informal activities that often have low market demand. It may be thus hypothesized that the aggregate poverty impact of micro-finance in an economy with low economic growth is modest or nonexistent. The observed borrower-level poverty impact is then a result of income redistribution or short-run income generation. The author addresses these questions using household level panel data from Bangladesh. The findings confirm that micro-finance benefits the poorest and has sustained impact in reducing poverty among program participants. It also has positive spillover impact, reducing poverty at the village level. But the effect is more pronounced in reducing extreme rather than moderate poverty.Environmental Economics&Policies,Banks&Banking Reform,Financial Intermediation,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Poverty Monitoring&Analysis,Environmental Economics&Policies,Banks&Banking Reform,Poverty Monitoring&Analysis,Financial Intermediation,Poverty Assessment

Poverty and income seasonality in Bangladesh

Seasonal poverty in Bangladesh, locally known as monga, refers to seasonal deprivation of food during the pre-harvest season of Aman rice. An analysis of household income and expenditure survey data shows that average household income and consumption are much lower during monga season than in other seasons, and that seasonal income greatly influences seasonal consumption. However, lack of income and consumption smoothing is more acute in greater Rangpur, the North West region, than in other regions, causing widespread seasonal deprivation. The analysis shows that agricultural income diversification accompanied by better access to micro-credit, irrigation, education, electrification, social safety net programs, and dynamic labor markets has helped reduce seasonality in income and poverty in regions other than Rangpur in the recent past. Hence, government policies should promote income diversification through infrastructure investments and provide income transfers to the targeted poor to contain income seasonality and poverty in this impoverished part of Bangladesh.Rural Poverty Reduction,Safety Nets and Transfers,Economic Theory&Research,Inequality

How structure of production determines the demand for human capital

On the issue of women's status, the objectives of this paper are twofold. First, it attempts to make precise some of the claims and allegations regarding the existence of bias against females in the allocation of resources within the household. The idea is to formulate these questions explicitly, so that it is possible to identify whether and to what degree there is evidence of this bias. Second, it identifies causes of this bias with the objective of isolating key factors that can be used for policy. In contrast to earlier studies that attemptto account for male-female differences in human capital, the authors do not assume any discrimination against females either at home (in the parent's utility function) or in the market (in the returns to human capital). It is assumed, however, that women have a comparative advantage in working in some sectors of the economy. Thus, increases in the shares of these sectors will increase the demand for female human capital. This explicit attention to factors that can be used as policy instruments -- and the relative neglect of factors reflecting gender bias in tastes -- is the point of departure from earlier literature. This paper develops the theory, tests the hypotheses, and concludes with a discussion of the policy implications.Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Economic Theory&Research,Agricultural Knowledge&Information Systems,Housing&Human Habitats,Environmental Economics&Policies

Estimating the long-term impacts of rural roads : a dynamic panel approach

Infrastructure investments are typically long-term. As a result, observed benefits to households and communities may vary considerably over time as short-term outcomes generate or are subsumed by longer-term impacts. This paper uses a new round of household survey as part of a local government engineering department's rural road improvement project financed by the World Bank in Bangladesh to compare the short-term and long-term effects of rural roads over eight years. A dynamic panel model, estimated by generalized method of moments, is applied to estimate the varying returns to public road investment accounting for time-varying unobserved characteristics. The results show that the substantial effects of roads on such outcomes as per capita expenditure, schooling, and prices as observed in the short run attenuate over time. But the declining returns are not common for all outcomes of interest or all households. Employment in the rural non-farm sector, for example, has risen more rapidly over time, indicating increasing returns to investment. The very poor have failed to sustain the short-term benefits of roads, and yet the gains accrued to the middle-income groups are strengthened over time because of changing sectors of employment, away from agriculture toward non-farm activity. The results also show that initial state dependence -- or initial community and household characteristics as well as road quality -- matters in estimating the trajectory of road impacts.Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Housing&Human Habitats,Economic Theory&Research,Rural Poverty Reduction,Rural Roads&Transport

Does the village fund matter in Thailand ?

This paper evaluates the impact of the Thailand Village and Urban Revolving Fund on household expenditure, income, and assets. The revolving fund was launched in 2001 when the Government of Thailand promised to provide a million baht (about $22,500) to every village and urban community in Thailand as working capital for locally-run rotating credit associations. The money – about$2 billion in total – was quickly disbursed to locally-run committees in almost all of Thailand’s 74,000 villages and more than 4,500 urban (including military) communities. By May 2005, the committees had lent a total of about $8 billion, with an average loan of$466. Using data from the Thailand Socioeconomic Surveys of 2002 and 2004, each of which surveys almost 35,000 households, the authors find that the borrowers were disproportionately poor and agricultural. A propensity score matching model finds that Fund borrowing in 2004 was associated with, on average, 1.9 percent more income, 3.3 percent more expenditure, and about 5 percent more ownership of durable goods. These results are broadly consistent with the results from instrumental variables models (where the identifying instrument was the inverse of village size), which however show a smaller (marginal) effect. Households that borrowed both from the revolving fund and from the Bank of Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives gained substantially more in terms of higher income than those who borrowed from either one or the other or from neither.Access to Finance,,Debt Markets,Economic Theory&Research,Rural Poverty Reduction